Research Notes
Notes from an ongoing falsification-first program.
Short, dated entries on what we are testing and what we are finding — method updates and robustness checks for technical readers, and plain-language briefings for risk teams and allocators. Tagged so you can read either lane. Every figure traces to the locked working paper; no number is added or changed without re-verification.
Reading the result map: where the hub signal is real, and where it is not
A guide to the verified Table 1/Table 2 numbers — why the hub→volatility partial is graded by market depth, and why direction is null everywhere by design.
What a coherence signal means for a risk desk
Plain-language briefing for allocators and risk teams: the monitor flags when a standard HAR baseline is structurally too calm — a model-risk signal, not a trade.